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PD-07 Evaluation of the Law on Public Debt Management of Vietnam and some Policy Implications

This paper consists of three main parts. In the first section, we analyze the current situation of public debt and public debt management in Vietnam, focusing on providing sharp discussion on the draft revision of the Law on Public Debt Management; Next, we investigate the experiences of countries around the world and also study the recommendations made by international organizations and experts, focusing on key aspects of the draft law; Finally, some recommendations for the Revised Law on Public Debt Management are proposed.


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PD-06 Minimum Wages in Viet Nam: Preliminary Observations

Minimum wage has been widely used as a tool to correct labor market imperfections that can result in an unfair distribution of gains in productivity. At the same time, minimum wage is the legal guarantee of the government for laborers in all industries and sectors where there exists labor relations, ensuring the basic needs for daily life of employees. However, when set incorrectly, the provisions on minimum wages can lead to unemployment, especially for workers with low qualifications and professions, and reduce the competitiveness of enterprises.


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PD-05 A brief on impacts of Brexit on the World Economy and Vietnamese Economy

The referendum in the UK closed with the winning of the leaving side. The new government of Prime Minister Theresa May also declared that the deadline for Brexit was the end Q1/2017. Such event imposed considerable effects on the UK economy as well as the global economy.


For Viet Nam, we believe that Brexit would have inconsiderable impacts in both short term and long term as the economic relationship between Viet Nam and the UK is marginal against the relationship of Viet Nam and other major partners such as the US, China or Japan.


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PD-04 Impacts of crude oil market changes on state budget

Based on accessible information and supposedly reasonable assumptions, this research assessed impacts of oil prices on state budget revenues in the range from 20 to 60 USD/barrel. The results show that with a one-dollar decrease in oil price, budget revenues will lower about 2.100 billion VND on average. Hence, when there are no optimistic alterations in oil market, oil price will still be less than 40 USD in 2016, which will significantly affect state budget revenues. 


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PD-03 Characteristics of Vietnamese Public Debt

Although public debt is understood clearly and intuitively to be the state’s debt, the calculation method and scope of the public debt are rather different among countries. To ensure the ability to compare and control the public debt vulnerabilities of all countries over the world, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided the statistical standard definition of public debt (IMF, 2001). This definition takes into account two basic elements: the institutional coverage and the debt instrument coverage.


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PD-02 Forecasts of the Vietnamese socio-macroeconomy in the period of 2016-2020

The forecasts show that in the period of 2016-2020, the average annual economic growth of Vietnam is unlikely to exceed 6% due to the lack of improvement in the dynamics and quality of growth.  

The growth rate of investment may exceed 6% (at constant prices). Credit growth may be around 12-21% per year, depending on the perspective of the monetary policy (inflation targeting) and macroeconomic conditions. The annual rise of 12 to 21% is sufficient to maintain inflation within the target of 6%, regardless of different macroeconomic conditions.


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PD-01 Impacts of the incident of oil rig 981 on the Vietnamese economy in 2014 and beyond

China’s recent movements on the East Sea clearly show the Chinese leaders’ intention to take control of most of the East Sea. China demarcates its claims of the East Sea within the 9-dash line, also known as U-shape line or nine-dotted line, which takes over 90% of the waters. China’s exploration, patrol, and policing in the East Sea has encountered disapproval from other countries. On 2nd May 2014, China National Offshore Oil Corporation moved its Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil platform into the Vietnamese continental shelf, which is also Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). After this “provocative” and “destabilizing the region” activity (said by the US and Japan), the incident was not resolved and limited within the sea as suggested by previous encounters. Facing determined efforts of Vietnam to prevent the platform from fixing its position, China responded with a series of actions which has been perceived by many Vietnamese experts’ as a ‘warning’ from Chinese leaders. The Vietnamese leaders neither compromise about the territorial issue nor accept the proposal of “setting aside disputes and jointly developing” put forward by Deng Xiaoping and promoted by generations of Chinese leadership. Although the relation between Vietnam and China continued improving over the years, the rise of China in terms of economic power and aggression in the East Sea make a strong case that raises doubts and precautions among Vietnamese.

This paper will discuss the impacts of the tension on the East Sea on the Vietnamese economy and put forward policy recommendations which can help alleviate the issues.


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